The Miles Toyota Championship is coming down to its last 3 games and 4 for some like Nelson College and Timaru BHS who are a bit behind but will make it soon. Here is the thing though, with so many teams in the comp and the distance to travel to games which is always a big time factor to how the season falls, this is going to be tight. There are 8 teams right now who are really pushing for that top 4 but some just to stay in the 8 and also getting that “Home” advantage is always so important again because of the travel. The one team that everyone is chasing is going to be St Bede’s College who sit at the top right now and look pretty comfortable right now.
So let me break it down just a little for everyone watching and who could beat them finish at the top instead of them. I’ll also let you know where teams could actually FALL to and who makes some big jumps depending on the Wins and Loses.
So St Bede’s sit at the top right now with a 9-1 record but with Christchurch BHS next Saturday which is a big time, then they have Marlborough BC and then St Thomas CC which is going to be the hardest game for them in the last week of the rounds. Christchurch BHS haven’t been the force this year like in the past and with them sitting on a 5-1-4 record it doesn’t look positive for a Top 4 finish at all even if they win their last 3 games over St Bede’s, Shirley BHS and Rangiora HS. I am picking St Bede’s this week and so I dont think they will get there to the Top 4. St Bede’s also have Marlborough BC who are in 8th place as of right now on a 5-5 record and have Timaru BHS, St Bede’s and Selwyn/Lincoln Schools. I dont have them winning against Timaru or St Bedes and so finishing with a win against Selwyn/Lincoln would be good.
So the St Thomas match up with St Bede’s is goign to be the best game of that end round and remember with St Thomas sitting 2nd as of right now but have Nelson College, Christ’s and St Bede’s to finish with its like they are in a video game and going through all the “Masters” to get to the “Boss” it is not an easy run for them. Think about it though, if St Thomas lose the last 3 games of the season they could go from being 8-2 being 2nd, to 8-5 and drop to as low as 6 depending on the others scores. But here is where it has been good for them and where they match up well against St Bede’s. They start with maybe the best Prop in the Comp Year 12 Richie Tupuailei at Tight Head who is not just a big “Monster” on the field but his run game is something that needs to be stopped early, cause those breaks lead to tries.
Richie and Fine Vaingalo at No.8 are the big time runners that are great at setting a platform to attack from and then you get others like Tino Leuta at 6, Norman Palu and even Cooper Te Hau the Loose Prop really getting after it and they move well as a group. Captain and Open Side Jack Coulthard needed the boys to be up front and physical in the forwards to really get into the face of St Bede’s to start to tip them over. Jack Coulthard will need that “D-Line” to move up quickly and not let those St Bede’s runners fall forward or make any unnecessary meters. Issac Redman at 9 and Ngaheke Nepata at 10 should take care of getting the ball around and attacking at different parts of the field but they NEED to hit them in the forwards first.
Remember I am just talking about St Bede’s in this game but for St Thomas they have Nelson College who have just come off a Quad win which was very hard fought and maybe the hardest Quad Tourney they have had in years with all 4 1st XV’s coming with VERY strong teams. Nelson College are very different to St Bede’s and St Thomas will need a different approach when playing them next Saturday at home. Nelson also have big pack with Netani Baleisomosomo, EJ Ifopo, Dylan Irvin and Tuterangi STone-Williams all these guys who welcome that physicality and almost welcome it, I mean look at No.8 Jacob Neha-Manihera and what he can do as well hitting the line. So Nelson brings something very different and the thinking and planning around this would be different and I would almost spread the attack and maybe pinpoint backs and have the forwards run through pairs of backs together, and really focus your attack on that kind of thing. We also have to take into mind that Nelson College sitting 4th with a 7-1-1 record and a solid Timaru BHS team right behind them on an 8-1 record with an extra game. Nelson College is going to be fighting the whole way to the end for that win.
So for St Thomas CC it goes to Nelson College first and then Christ’s College, then St Bede’s. Chrits’s College are geared up right now losing to Nelson College but they sit 3rd with a 7-3 record and their last games are Rangiora HS, St Thomas and the STAC to finish off and they need to finish 10-3 to be safe for that Top 4 finish. Johnny Lee has led this side in such a big way and he was coming up big in the Quad for them at Blind Side. I still think that Hendrix Taylor serves better as a Hook than a No.8 but it might be more of a “Need” than anything else. Marcus Hamilton, Jack Smith and Jack Jones in that front row have been good as well and so maybe there is not a need for him to move. I like the fact that Nic Shearer is back at 10 and with Sean Rutherford-Bradford at 9 because to me those two make this thing really move. Nic Shearer with his kick game makes every settle and when there is the need to push the ball through the hands, Sean Rutherford-Bradford and Nic Shearer just get it done. I also like that they have been getting the ball to Nate McKenzie in the midfield because he is a hard dude to handle and its not good when he starts to break tackles one after another.
St Thomas CC will need to try and match Christ’s College on a different level and a different “Tip” to get that “W”. St Thomas CC is the main focus because everything really is built on their success or their downfall and that is for everyone but St Bede’s. If St Thomas go unbeaten and finish 11-2 for the season that means Timaru BHS could finish in at 3 and everyone moves down one. It also puts the other teams in a position where they will be making the trip for Play-off Rugby as well which is what you don’t want at the end of the season all tired and beat up anyway. I’m VERY keen to watch how this all plays out in the last 3 games.
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